Thursday, December 31, 2009

o Government Agencies

For most people, the four most common 'windows' into how government agencies operate are going to the post office (US Postal Service), filing income tax returns (IRS), voting (Board of Elections), and getting a drivers license (Dept of Motor Vehicles). I can't think of a worse torture than wasting time filling out confusing forms and standing in long lines. Pain and suffering epitomize all of these agencies. Now the government has expanded its scope and scale by taking over companies and blowing out the budget. The US government wants to be a health care provider when it should focus first on reducing health insurance costs. Allow for competition among health insurance companies, similar to what happens for auto insurance. And then start providing coverage one piece at a time. The government should concern itself with streamlining the agencies under its control rather than expanding its responsibilities.

o FDIC Bankruptcy

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is an independent agency created by the Congress to maintain stability and public confidence in the nation's financial system by insuring deposits. Each depositor insured to at least $250,000 per insured bank through 12/31/2013. In 2009, a total of 130 bank failed. Does the FDIC's insurance fund have enough left to cover all the losses?

Sunday, December 20, 2009

o Drug Policy

Mexico is under siege by drug cartels, the drug war is at our doorstep. It can no longer go unsolved.

Many drugs such as caffeine, alcohol, barbiturates and nicotine are already legal. The reason drugs are outlawed is arbitrary. Its not a matter of a substance being legal or illegal that makes it bad or good for someone. In what circumstances and in what quantities is a drug used?

The drug policy should focus on putting drug dealers out of business while at the same time reducing the demand for drug use. Policy has to be crafted to fight drugs on both on the supply side and demand side. The solution is to legalize drugs and then give the proceeds to a socially deplorable organizations like a white supremacy group and a terrorist organization. And to Ogilvy and Mather so they can run an anti-drug ad campaign. The legal drug money cannot go anywhere beneficial to society because that would make drug use socially acceptable, which is not the objective. Drugs would become cheap, readily available and have a shameful stigma attached to their use. If you buy drugs, you are a racist and terrorist. Social pressure should eliminate all but the hardest hard core abusers. Hence the problem is reduced to a minimum.

Maybe that is too radical of a solution. But addiction to me will continue whether drugs are legal or illegal. The money from legalized drugs can go toward health education, prevention and treatment.

Anyone that is pro-abortion and under a libertarian banner of freedom of choice should be pro-legalizing drugs.

o Gulfo Currency

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are set to launch a single currency called the Gulfo. The creation of the Gulfo is a statement by countries in the region that they have lost faith in fiat US dollars as the world's reserve currency.

o Senate Banking Committee votes 16-7 for Bernanke

It appears that Ben Bernanke will be reconfirmed as Federal Reserve Chairman. Its a mistake to reappoint the very person that lead the US into the financial downfall of 2008.

This from the website of the Federal Reserve Board (http://www.federalreserve.gov) :

"The primary responsibility of the Board members is the formulation of monetary policy.

In addition to monetary policy responsibilities, the Federal Reserve Board has regulatory and supervisory responsibilities over banks that are members of the System, bank holding companies, international banking facilities in the United States, Edge Act and agreement corporations, foreign activities of member banks, and the U.S. activities of foreign-owned banks. The Board also sets margin requirements, which limit the use of credit for purchasing or carrying securities."

Paraphrasing the words of then Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who created and forced the FED to implement TARP (September 19, 2008):

"The Fed allowed banks to carry illiquid 'troubled' assets on their books, that clogged up the financial system, and undermined the strength of the financial institutions. As a result, Americans' personal savings were threatened, and the ability of consumers and businesses to borrow and finance spending, investment, and job creation was disrupted."

The Fed helped to create the financial turmoil that the US and the world is suffering from. The passage of TARP has bought some time but the economy remains weak. Congress needs to elect a leader that solves problems, not creates and perpetuates them.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

o Economic Meltdown Videos

The following videos reveal insight on what lead to the bank bailouts and how the bailouts were handled.

PBS Frontline special called "The Warning".
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/view/

Senator Jim Bunning speaking at the Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee Hearing on December 03, 2009.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rka9VbPPMys

Saturday, October 24, 2009

o Ratios to Evaluate for Stocks and for Real Estate

Ratios, one number divided by another, are a far better way to compare prices across a plane instead of looking at just the outright value.

For example, price per square foot for real estate is an important measure in real estate. Price per earnings for stocks gives a better way to compare the relative value of stock prices.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

o The Nobel Peace Prize

The five members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee award the Nobel Peace Prize each year. It carries no official powers or responsibilities. The five judges can award the prize to whomever they want, unlike an election or Olympic gold medal which is won in competition.

If people don't like how the Nobel Prize is awarded, there is something that can be done. Create an independent peace prize.

Create a website with an award called the "World's Noble Peace Prize". Allow people to nominate persons or organizations for the award. Have people register for the site and pay $10 for the right to vote once on who they feel should win the "World's Noble Peace Prize". Tally the votes online or have people send in ballots. An outside auditor can verify the results. Donate the proceeds to the winner's charity of choice. This will democratize the process and give a global voice to the decision.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

o Voting Along Political Lines

Party identification holds more significance than the quality of the candidate up for election. The two party system does not give voters much choice. I think a third party would help reflect the views of more moderate voters.

The message to people is to vote your conscience, however please refer to the party platform so we can tell you what your thoughts are.


For empirical evidence of how voters behave, please view the ANES data: http://www.electionstudies.org/

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

o FTC Toughens Endorsement Rules For Bloggers

Going forward, the FTC will require bloggers to clearly state when they receive cash or "payment in kind" for endorsing a company's products or services. So if Blackberry pays a blogger $5k to say good things about the new Blackberry Curve, the blogger must disclose he or she was paid by Blackberry for the rave review.

Failure to disclose the connection could lead to fines of $11,000 per violation. Its a way to separate unbiased endorsements from paid endorsements.

Does that mean the government cannot pay public relations firms to promote certain programs or laws without full disclosure? Does that mean the "earmarks" on spending that benefit special interest groups have to be reported? Because as a lawmaker, you want to endorse a bill independently and not get paid in kind with political favors or campaign funds, right? I think the FTC rule should be pushed to its logical conclusion, that if you get a kick back or pay someone for opinions or votes, the public should know about it.

Friday, October 2, 2009

o Chinese Money Habits

This is from a post on http://www.wisebread.com.

1. Being frugal is a virtue - Being frugal did not start as communist propaganda. Actually it is a concept that has been taught for thousands of years. The classic Chinese text Dao De Jing states that the three greatest treasures one can have are love, frugality, and generosity. Frugality is really a integral part of the Chinese culture.
2. Save as much as possible
3. Pay for things in cash - Chinese people are wary of debt.
4. Always look for a bargain
5. Your salary is not a secret
6. Cash gifts are the best

Maybe, if economists would have known a little bit about Chinese culture, they would have downgraded their foreign consumption expectations. OMG, there are a billion people in China with disposable income now that the USA has outsourced jobs to that nation. Therefore, they will all buy TVs and drink Coke and upgrade their I-pods every year. Wrong, they will buy nothing. And time has run out, because now our debtor nation has no purchasing power either. Coal is being added to the consumption economy furnace through low interest rates, yet the flames shrink and the embers turn from white hot to red to grey. The Fed and the US government are no wiser than the Little Match Girl, yet they have to come up with the ideas to resuscitate the economy. Scary.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

o Change the Constitution

The constitution was signed and agreed upon in 1787. Because of the change in global economics and the advent of the internet, its outdated in key areas.

Here are a few suggestions to make things better and more competitive.

1) Stop gerrymandering and redistrict states in a fair way. Create an independent commission whose priority is to create competitive districts. Limit the number of Congressmen in the House of Representatives by half by increasing the district sizes. Voters should have access to polling websites to indicate how they would vote on certain issues and laws.

2) Create a fourth branch of government called the Commerce Branch. Within the Commerce Branch, have separate departments for the major industrial and farming sectors. For example, Agriculture, Banking, Energy, Manufacturing, Shipping, Retailers. The head of each department is an elected official serving a 5 year term. The departments responsibilities are to draft laws, taxes, rules, and regulations regarding their sector. Any changes to the regulatory code will then be put forth in front of the Senate.

3) Introduce a third viable party, the Independent Party. A two party system does not allow for "tie breakers". It also doesn't give voters much of a choice. A two party system is too dogmatic and doesn't foster the freedom and expression of independent thoughts. People vote along "Party Lines" meaning voters' opinions are given to them by their political party.

4) Require the Democrats, Republicans, and Independents to field at least two candidates to run for each primary. Keep each primary closed meaning only registered members of a particular political party can vote for their primary candidates. Fund both candidates equally. Most incumbent Congressman face no challenges in the primary elections. In fact, party leaders discourage others from running against an incumbent. Primary elections should be heavily advertised and open for any eligible candidate to participate. Competition among candidates will ensure the government will have the best possible people in office.

5) Address the need for campaign finance reform. Utilize the internet as an inexpensive way to disseminate information about each candidate. Have each person running for public office fill out a standardized questionnaire and have the answers readily available online.

6) Pass a balanced budget amendment.

7) In lieu of the House of Representatives, let citizens become involved with the law making process. Have 2 people for each county sign a sworn affidavit that they have read and understand a bill before their Senators are allowed to vote on the bill.

8) Give states more power to decide social issues. The federal government should worry about larger issues such as war, treaties, and border protection.

9) Require military enlistment for sons and daughters of elected officials. The decision to use the military should be given to people with some skin in the game.

10) Level the playing field for all citizens until the age of 21. This means investing heavily in schools, educational resources, food and health care for those under the age of 21. After you turn 21, you're on your own baby. The Government ain't your mommy, the sooner you realize that the better off you'll be.

11) Impose a three term limit to Congressman. Politicians should not be entitled to a seat in Congress, nor should they be lauded for holding a seat for 40+ years.

12) Don't allow lobbyist to have offices within the borders of Washington DC. Have congressman report all meetings with lobbyists.

13) No business taxes on new businesses for the first 2 years. The government needs to encourage job growth.

14) Institute a flat income tax combined with a federal sales tax.

15) States and regions should encourage local currencies to keep jobs and money circulating in their area.

Websites:
Please visit http://www.publicampaign.org, http://www.govtrack.us and http://smallisbeautiful.org for more information.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

o CFTC Looking for Excessive Speculation

The CFTC has woken up to the fact that speculation may have behind the commodity bubble of the last few years. The easiest place to look for speculation in with Exchange Trade Funds (ETF's) and Commodity Index Funds. These "investment" vehicles allow retail traders, mom and pop Smith, access to the commodity markets. Billions of dollars worth of investment money pour through these funds and that are used to buy (long only) front month futures contracts. One of the biggest sources of speculation are the "investors" in these types of funds, driving prices higher by buying futures contracts each month. Its retail money, aided by the ease of electronic trading, that leads to the speculative bubbles. The government is misdirected when it focuses on institutional players. Large financial institutions provide liquidity that enables end users and producers to hedge their risk in the financial markets.

Recommendations:

I see the problem as retail "investors" being involved in an institutional market.

1) Keep all futures contracts in "big" volume sizes. E-mini's cut the size of a contract in half or a quarter allowing smaller speculators to trade.

2) Disallow the aggregation of funds to purchase a futures contract. This will effectively eliminate ETFs and Commodity Index Funds. The market should be left to large, professional traders. Then prices are determined by supply and demand and not retail money flow.

3) Force all futures exchanges, whether on shore or offshore, to publish volume data.

Saturday, July 18, 2009

o Federal Government Intervention of Social Issues

It’s impossible to keep 200 million people happy while focusing on bigger issues of national security. Let states handle social issues on a state-by-state basis. If the temperance movement lives on in Utah, that’s their own business. Abortion can be legal in Maine but illegal in New Hampshire, it’s not a winner take all issue so it shouldn’t be dictated from the top down. The Federal Government does not have time to waste debating Roe v Wade. If people are so opposed to their state laws, they can move states.

o Changes in Public Education

Public schools should teach logic for two years in junior high school. Its better to know how to think than to just learn facts through rote memorization. Also computers are logic driven machines, and everyone should be given the ability to interact with computers because they are an integral part of our society. Chess should be a mandatory class to force students to learn strategy and forward thinking.

o Cabinet Positions

Cabinet positions should be split evenly between the two ruling parties so that voices from both sides can always be heard. A one sided discussion is not a discussion, its an echo. Debates should be lively and opposing views should always be expressed.

o Pitfalls of a Global Economy

Lower and uneducated people in the U.S. have no way of making a living in the Global Economy because labor is always cheaper abroad. The Global Economy is really government-sanctioned discrimination against the working class poor. Create a unit cost per item manufactured in the U.S. and tax imports accordingly. A cheap and slave labor source is an unfair playing field, especially when our own government sets an internal minimum wage. Blue collar and manufacturing jobs are hard to export, white collar jobs only need a computer and a desk. Think about that one for the future.

o Externality Costs

What is the price you pay for a tomato you buy in the supermarket? Does it properly reflect the shipping cost, the social cost of migrant workers who picked the tomato, and the environmental impact of irrigation and pesticides?

You can buy a bottle of water for $1.00, but no one pays for the recycling of the plastic bottle once you throw it out. It’s an externality paid for by government services and not applied directly to the consumer of the good.

The cost of any good should include the hidden costs that go along with the production of the good. Manufactures and growers should be made to pay for the externalities embedded in their products. Only then will consumers realize what the true cost necessary to grow and to ship a tomato.

o Audits of Federal Government Spending

An external audit of every government agency should occur each time a new president is elected. The results of the audit should be published so the government can be streamlined for the new administration.

o Local Currencies

A local currency keeps money circulating in a smaller area. It’s a way to support local businesses and craftsman because anyone outside the local area, for example Starbucks, will not accept the local currency. Smaller robust economies have less of a chance of imploding as dramatically as larger economies. "Berkshares" are an example of a local currency being implemented in Massachusetts.

o Health Care Reform

Something needs to be done about the large, complicated, and onerous health care system. Understanding how the system works is the first step in correcting it. System analysis requires modularizing each component of a system, then mapping the variables that impact each unit. Verbal descriptions are a suboptimal way of understanding complex systems. Visual software or diagrams are a far more effective method of communication.

Components (object):
Physical plant, hospitals
Medical equipment
Vaccines
Drugs

Components (human):
Doctors
Nurses
Trainers
Physical therapist
Patients
Lawyers

Components (activity) :
Diet
Smoking
Exercise
Drinking
Lifestyle

Components (money):
Salary
Lawsuits
Insurance

Step 1. Take insurance out of the hands of employers and make individuals purchase their own. The correct behavior modifications can only be controlled with money as an incentive. Company health care policies mask the true expenditure on insurance.

Step 2. Increase competition among health care providers by allowing doctors and hospitals to accept any insurance company payment.

Step 3. Cap lawsuits for medical malpractice or drug related complications. Maintain a list of the 95 percent most common types of lawsuits and have a maximum payment associated with the malpractice. Also include a social penalty against those that lose a case to discourage frivolous suits.

Step 4. Fund open source software for doctors and hospitals to use. Encourage use of standardized record keeping software and databases.

Step 5. Create and design educational programs within universities called hospital management. Put the programs on par with hotel and restaurant management schools. Do not have doctors run hospitals, have professionals.

Step 6. Create a two tier health insurance system. One is for catastrophic accidents and one for personal health care. Require everyone to purchase catastrophic insurance.

Step 7. Create a Wellness Index. 1 being poor health, near death and 100 being great health. Have mandatory yearly checkups. The Index number determines your rates, much like a credit score. Those who score 90 or higher receive a check from their insurance company. Failure to meet minimum health standards may result in fines or community service.

Step 8. Tax foods $0.10 per gram of fat.

Step 9. Subsidize gym visits and personal trainers through lower insurance cost

Step 10. Create a profession called Health Care Professional. Require only 2 years of school and 1 year residency. Have them take care of the little stuff and do house calls. Pay them directly.

Step 11. Reduce the cycle of time it takes for a drug to hit the market. Fund bio-informatics. Create custom drugs based on individual DNA.

Step 12. Reverse the mentality. Health care coverage is a privilege, not a right. Refuse lung cancer treatment for smokers or liver care for drinkers.

Step 13. Have government subsidized for people under the age of 21 and over the age of 60. From 21 to 60 years, you are on your own.

Step 14. Chronic hereditary health problems may require special attention.


Health Care Chart

o Balanced Budget Amendment

The result of an over spending by the government is higher taxes to pay for more spending. It also leads to mortgaging the future by having to borrow money now to make the budget whole. Instead, force states and the federal government to balance the budget every year. Fiscal responsibility increases the faith in the American economy by preventing bankruptcy or the need for issuance of more debt.

o Mandatory Military Enrollment for Children of Elected Officials

Enforce mandatory enlistment for the sons and daughters of Congressman and other elected officials. The fact that someone's own child is on the front lines, instead the child from an under privileged household, will spur a healthy debate as to the necessities of the war. Voting for war will be a much more serious issue, those that vote "yes" will truly be held accountable.

Monday, April 27, 2009

o The Swine Flu and the Economy

A few hundred people catch the swine flu and the very core of our economy is shaken. The stock market is down on the news of the outbreak. Is this new global economy so fragile that pigs can destroy it? Unfortunately yes. The economy caught the swine flu.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

o Banking Cartels

The world leaders have scrambled to set global interest rates low and set a global agenda of printing money to bailout sickened banks. How is this different than OPEC, the oil cartel that tries to set oil prices? Its no different, just a different set of players. Lets call it OTAEC, Organization of Toxic Asset Exporting Countries.

o Dispelling the Renting Stigma

Why is renting seen as negative and home ownership seen as positive.

The "leaders" of this country give people the false notion that buying is a better alternative to renting. Here are the top reasons to be a proud renter:
1) One typically does not build equity in a home for 10 years. No one's job or marriage or personal life is that stable. Home ownership made sense when people stayed in one place, things are much different now.
2) Houses are illiquid assets, its hard to sell once your are in.
3) Home prices go down as well us up. You could own a home for years and the house may be worth less than what you bought it for.
4) Maintenance is expensive.
5) Your nest egg is not tied into your home. A home is just a place to live that can be classified as an expense, too many people attach sentimental value to a house.

Renting has more upside for most over buying. Yet the outmoded politicians still advocate the backwards ideal of home ownership.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

o The Need for Independent Auditors

Here is a sure way that no further Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme will not exist. And it doesn't rely on the under funded, under staffed, under educated SEC.

If a company or individual wants invest $1m or more in a hedge fund or private investment, they must first get an independent audit from one of a list of government approved accounts. No accountant can be used twice unless all other auditors are cycled through. The cap on how much the audit costs is $10k. Consider it a one time payout of $10k for insurance.

Lets take the case of Bernie Madoff. Assume he had 100 investors that put in over $1m to his fund. Assuming this rule were in place, his fund would have gone through several independent audits from several different accounting firms. Any red flags would have been raised years ago.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

o New Recovery Bill Passed

The $819 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passed the House of Representatives on January 29th, 2009.

o Shadow Banking System

Its scary to think that funds moved around the world by hedge funds and foreign governments can be withdrawn from the US system and collapse the economy in days. Pimco's Bill Gross refers to it as the "shadow banking system" on his website. In September 2008, UK Northern Rock Bank, Washington Mutual, Hong Kong-based Bank of East Asia all had a run on the bank resulting in the collapse of the first two.

Representative Paul Kanjorski:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xKPcyvlfnc

Bill Parish:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WshxmT3Fawo

Thursday, January 8, 2009

o Federal Stimulus Package

The stimulus package proposed by the government is estimated to be $700 billion dollars.

Written out long hand, its $700,000,000,000. That's a big number. The addition of billions of dollars in the system will result in inflation. There are too many dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services.

Spending money on buying garbage assets from banks and propping up inferior car manufacturing, with no reforms attached, is pointless. The system is not being fixed, its simply being life-lined. Once the defibrillators are detached, you are still left with a heart attack victim. Or is the economy simply dead?

The banking industry has artificially grown out of proportion to the purpose it serves. Banks are supposed to take in depositor money and lend to credit worthy counterparties. Profits are made on the difference between the interest paid on deposits and the interest collected for lending money. That's it. A bank violates its charter by speculating in obscure and opaque markets. A robust banking system is necessary for the proper functioning of a market economy. Its too bad banks do not take their roles responsibly.

Cars that run on gasoline are obsolete by definition. Only a finite amount of oil exists. Let the weaker banks fail in order to keep the surviving banks stronger. Switch the auto fleets to electric cars. The only problem is the government taxes gasoline and so will not force the industry to change. An investment in new industries, like electric or ethanol cars, would ensure American serfs have work and are capable of footing the ginormous bail out bill.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

o Ponzi Schemes

A Ponzi or pyramid scheme is a fraudulent operation that pays returns to investors out of the money paid by subsequent investors rather than from profit. Below are a list of Ponzi schemes:

  • Bernie Madoff
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • National Debt
  • Trade Deficit
  • Fractional Reserve Banking System
Bernie Madoff is a drop in the bucket compared to the Ponzi scheme run by the US government and the current banking system. As soon as the interest rates begin to rise, the full consequences of the debt problem will have real impact on the borrow and spend economy.